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    Home»Analysis»Analyzing MTN Nigeria’s 2025 historic rebound and the 2026 outlook
    Analysis 5 Mins Read

    Analyzing MTN Nigeria’s 2025 historic rebound and the 2026 outlook

    mmBy ITPulseMarch 2, 2026232 Views
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    By Martin Ekpeke

    MTN Nigeria Communications Plc has closed one of the most difficult chapters in its corporate history with the release of its FY 2025 audited financial results. The company delivered a remarkable financial recovery after a turbulent 2024 that was heavily impacted by foreign exchange losses and macroeconomic instability. The rebound marks a decisive shift from loss to record profitability and a restoration of shareholder confidence.

    The difference between 2024 and 2025 is clear and measurable. In FY 2024, MTN Nigeria reported a loss after tax of ₦400.4 billion. Earnings per share stood at negative ₦19.05. Dividend payments were suspended as the company focused on stabilizing its balance sheet amid severe currency volatility.

    In FY 2025, the company reported a profit after tax of ₦1.1 trillion. Earnings per share rose sharply to ₦53.07. Service revenue increased by 55.1 percent to ₦5.2 trillion. EBITDA more than doubled, rising by 108.9 percent to ₦2.7 trillion. The EBITDA margin expanded by 13.6 percentage points to 52.7 percent. Free cash flow increased by 215.5 percent to ₦1.2 trillion. Retained earnings recovered to ₦400.4 billion, while shareholders’ equity reached ₦548.7 billion.

    This represents a year-on-year profit swing of over ₦1.5 trillion.

    Subscriber growth supported this recovery. Total subscribers increased by 7.9 percent to 87.3 million. Active data users rose by 11.6 percent to 53.2 million. Data traffic grew by 34 percent during the year, reflecting sustained demand for digital services across Nigeria.

    Commenting on the growth, Dr. KarlToriola, Chief Executive Officer of MTN Nigeria, described 2025 as a defining period for the company.

    “2025 marked a significant turning point in our business performance and resumption of dividend payments. In the period, we returned to profitability, generated stronger free cash flow and restored positive retained earnings and shareholders’ funds. Our balance sheet resilience was driven by the robust performance of the business as well as a focused reduction in foreign currency exposure and financial discipline. These results were delivered through excellent commercial execution, commitment to operational efficiency and disciplined capital allocation, underpinned by a supportive macroeconomic environment.”

    He further stated: “2025 was a defining year for MTN Nigeria, marked by a return to profitability, strengthened financial resilience and renewed momentum in our long term investment programme.”

    The company invested ₦1 trillion in network expansion and modernization during the year, more than double the previous year’s capital expenditure. This investment increased network capacity, expanded fibre infrastructure, improved resilience, and strengthened 5G deployment across the country.

    The Board approved a final dividend of ₦15 per share, bringing total dividends for FY 2025 to ₦20 per share. This signal renewed financial strength while maintaining a commitment to reinvestment.

    Modupe Kadri, Chief Financial Officer of MTN Nigeria, emphasized the discipline behind the turnaround said: “Turnarounds rarely happen in headlines. They are built through tough trade-offs, deliberate choices, and teams that stay focused when the environment is most volatile. I am deeply proud of our people and grateful to our shareholders, regulators, and partners who stayed the course with us. Most especially, we are grateful for the support our Board and our parent company.”

    The 2025 performance was not accidental. It was the result of deliberate financial restructuring, operational efficiency, and reduced foreign currency exposure. The company maintained a data-first strategy and invested heavily in infrastructure even during economic uncertainty. Profitability was restored through disciplined capital allocation and strong commercial execution.

    As Toriola noted, profit enables sustained investment in network quality and customer experience. The company views profitability as a tool for long-term infrastructure development rather than an end in itself.

    Looking ahead, MTN Nigeria appears positioned for sustained growth in FY 2026. Growth rates are likely to moderate from the extraordinary rebound seen in 2025, but performance is expected to remain strong.

    If service revenue grows by a conservative 18 to 22 percent in 2026, revenue could reach approximately ₦6.1 trillion to ₦6.3 trillion. Subscriber numbers could rise to between 92 million and 95 million. Active data users are likely to exceed 60 million as smartphone penetration deepens in semi-urban and rural areas.

    Profit after tax could increase to between ₦1.3 trillion and ₦1.5 trillion, assuming relative foreign exchange stability. EBITDA margins are likely to remain above 50 percent due to operating leverage and optimized infrastructure capacity. Free cash flow could exceed ₦1.4 trillion.

    Capital expenditure will likely remain elevated, although possibly below the ₦1 trillion deployed in 2025. Investment will focus on 5G densification, fibre rollout, and network optimization.

    With retained earnings restored and cash flow strengthened, total dividends for FY 2026 could reasonably exceed ₦25 per share, subject to macroeconomic stability and regulatory conditions.

    MTN Nigeria’s FY 2025 audited results represent one of the most significant corporate recoveries in Nigeria’s telecommunications sector. The company moved from a ₦400.4 billion loss in 2024 to a ₦1.1 trillion profit in 2025. It restored shareholder value, resumed dividend payments, strengthened its balance sheet, and expanded its infrastructure footprint.

    The performance demonstrates the resilience of its data-driven strategy and disciplined financial management. If current momentum continues, 2026 is likely to consolidate these gains and further strengthen MTN Nigeria’s leadership in Nigeria’s expanding digital economy.

     

     

     

    2026 outlook MTN Nigeria's 2025 historic rebound
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